Lookin at Lucky highlights Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Champion colt Lookin at Lucky tops a field of seven three-year-olds in Saturday's $300,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The 2009 champion two-year-old will be making his first start of the year in the 1 1/16-mile race.

The Rebel is the final local prep race before the $1 million Arkansas Derby, set for Saturday, April 10.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Lookin at Lucky will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and leave from the two post. The Rebel will be the colt's first start outside of California.

"We have a lot of questions that have to be answered," Baffert said, "wearing blinkers for the first time in a race and running on dirt for the first time. The closer you get to the Kentucky Derby (May 1), the better off you are knowing the answers."

Lookin at Lucky, owned by Karl Watson, Mike Pegram and Paul Weltman, was second to Vale of York in the Breeders'Cup Juvenile last November, but came back to win the CashCall Futurity the following month at Hollywood Park.

"It always looks like he's stretched to win," Gomez said following the CashCall win, "but that's not the case. He's going to learn more as he goes along because he's got a super mind to him. We've got to get him to where he puts his competition away and sprints to the wire. He's full of talent and I'm getting even more excited about him."

The colt has won five of six starts for more than $1.2 million.

Southwest Stakes winner Conveyance, also trained by Baffert, will make his next start in the $800,000 Sunland Derby on Sunday, March 28.

Southwest runner-up Dublin, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, will start from the far outside post with Corey Nakatani riding. The chestnut colt will be making his second start of 2010 for owners Robert Baker and William Mack.

Dublin came from the back of the field in the Southwest to lose by just three- quarters of a length. Nakatani will be aboard the colt for the first time in the race.

In 2009 Dublin won the Hopeful at Saratoga, but then finished fifth in the Chamgagne and seventh in the Iroquois. With two wins in six career starts he has earnings of $278,623.

Taking another shot at Lookin at Lucky is Noble's Promise, trained by Ken McPeek. Noble's Promise will break from post six with Robby Albarado riding.

Owned by Chasing Dreams Racing, the colt was third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and second in the CashCall Futurity. He won the Fitz Dixon Stakes at Presque Isle Downs and Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity Stakes.

Noble's Promise career record shows three wins from six starts and earnings of $733,500.

Here is the complete field for the Rebel in post position order: Cardiff Giant, Christian Santiago Reyes; Lookin at Lucky, Garrett Gomez; Royal Express, Perry Compton; Uh Oh Bango, Glenn Corbett; Pleasant Storm, Jon Court; Noble's Promise, Robby Albarado and Dublin, Corey Nakatani.

Post-time for the 50th running of the Rebel is scheduled for 6:47 p.m. (et).

Jazzsporys Horseracing Betting News

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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